The impact of earthquakes on demographic changes in Italy. A comparison between L’Aquila and the Emilia Romagna’s cases

This paper analyses the environmentally-induced migration and displacement resulting from two earthquakes: Abruzzo (2009) and Emilia Romagna (2012). After a general critical overview of the social science literature on this topic, the main changes in the two migration systems are analysed looking at the different roots and trajectories of the forced human displacement that followed the two earthquakes. Additionally, we look at the long-run effects of earthquakes on population density growth across Italian municipalities affected by earthquakes during the period of 2002–2017. Moving from the fact that similar events may occurring in different contexts, may have different outcomes according to the specific vulnerability experienced by the territory, we assess the predisaster context and recovery period with the aim to offer a comparative analysis of the challenges related to post earthquake demographic movements and post-disaster resettlement. The goal of our paper is twofold: first, we aim to understand how the two migration systems have been influenced by the pre-existent vulnerabilities and pre-quake social and institutional backgrounds before and after the hazard. Second, we investigate the long-run effects of earthquakes on population density growth in Italy applying spatial regression models. In the analyses we will take into account the main economic trends in the earthquake’s area. Relying on ISTAT data on the internal migration in Italy, we finally offer a general model of how environmental disaster might affect displacement and suggest the main challenges related to the post-disaster governance.