Geostatistical modelling of regional bird species richness: exploring environmental proxies for conservation purpose

Identifying spatial patterns in species diversity represents an essential task to be accounted for when establishing conservation strategies or monitoring programs. Predicting patterns of species richness by a model-based approach has recently been recognised as a significant component of conservation planning. Here, a spatially explicit data-set on birds presence and distribution across the whole Tuscany region was analysed using geostatistical models. Species richness was calculated within 1x1 km grid cells and 10 environmental predictors were included in the analysis. A statistical model integrating spatial components of variation with predictive ecological factors of bird species richness was developed and used to obtain predictive regional maps of bird diversity hotspots.