This paper investigates the causality links among domestic saving, external debt inflows, and economic growth in Tunisia over the period 1970-2008. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach proves cointegration relationships between the variables of interest and justifies the use of a Vector Error Correction framework to make Granger causality tests. In the short-run, we find bi-directional causality between private debt inflows and saving, and oneway causalities running from these inflows to growth and from the latter to saving. In the long-run, saving and growth Granger-cause private debt inflows, whereas public debt inflows Granger-cause saving. These results suggest some economic policies for Tunisia.

(2011). Saving, debt inflows, and growth Nexus in Tunisia [journal article - articolo]. In SAVINGS AND DEVELOPMENT. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10446/27505

Saving, debt inflows, and growth Nexus in Tunisia

2011-01-01

Abstract

This paper investigates the causality links among domestic saving, external debt inflows, and economic growth in Tunisia over the period 1970-2008. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach proves cointegration relationships between the variables of interest and justifies the use of a Vector Error Correction framework to make Granger causality tests. In the short-run, we find bi-directional causality between private debt inflows and saving, and oneway causalities running from these inflows to growth and from the latter to saving. In the long-run, saving and growth Granger-cause private debt inflows, whereas public debt inflows Granger-cause saving. These results suggest some economic policies for Tunisia.
articolo
2011
Ce papier examine les liens de causalité entre épargne domestique, flux d’endettement externe, et croissance économique en Tunisie durant la période 1970-2008. L’approche ARDL prouve que ces variables sont cointégrées et justifie la conduite des tests de causalité au sens de Granger dans le cadre d’un vecteur à correction d’erreurs. Dans le court terme, nous trouvons une causalité bidirectionnelle entre flux privés d’endettement et épargne, et des causalités unidirectionnelles allant de ces flux vers la croissance et de cette dernière vers l’épargne. Dans le long terme, l’épargne et la croissance causent les flux privés, alors que les flux publics causent l’épargne. Ces résultats suggèrent certaines politiques économiques pour la Tunisie.
Abdelhafidh, Samir
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/10446/27505
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