In professional tennis, it is often acknowledged that the server has an initial advantage. Indeed, the majority of points are won by the server, making the serve one of the most important elements in this sport. In this paper, we focus on the role of the serve advantage in winning a point as a function of the rally length. We propose a Bayesian isotonic logistic regression model for the probability of winning a point on serve. In particular, we decompose the logit of the probability of winning via a linear combination of B-splines basis functions, with athlete-specific basis function coefficients. Further, we ensure the serve advantage decreases with rally length by imposing constraints on the spline coefficients. We also consider the rally ability of each player, and study how the different types of court may impact on the player’s rally ability. We apply our methodology to a Grand Slam singles matches dataset.

(2021). Bayesian isotonic logistic regression via constrained splines: an application to estimating the serve advantage in professional tennis [journal article - articolo]. In STATISTICAL METHODS & APPLICATIONS. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10446/193477

Bayesian isotonic logistic regression via constrained splines: an application to estimating the serve advantage in professional tennis

Argiento, Raffaele
2021

Abstract

In professional tennis, it is often acknowledged that the server has an initial advantage. Indeed, the majority of points are won by the server, making the serve one of the most important elements in this sport. In this paper, we focus on the role of the serve advantage in winning a point as a function of the rally length. We propose a Bayesian isotonic logistic regression model for the probability of winning a point on serve. In particular, we decompose the logit of the probability of winning via a linear combination of B-splines basis functions, with athlete-specific basis function coefficients. Further, we ensure the serve advantage decreases with rally length by imposing constraints on the spline coefficients. We also consider the rally ability of each player, and study how the different types of court may impact on the player’s rally ability. We apply our methodology to a Grand Slam singles matches dataset.
articolo
Montagna, Silvia; Orani, Vanessa; Argiento, Raffaele
(2021). Bayesian isotonic logistic regression via constrained splines: an application to estimating the serve advantage in professional tennis [journal article - articolo]. In STATISTICAL METHODS & APPLICATIONS. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10446/193477
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/10446/193477
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