Mortality and severity of infection in Lombardy

This section considers mortality data in the Italian region of Lombardy in March and April 2020 and assesses mortality due to Covid-19 in its 12 provinces, by classifying deaths according to age group for each province. This type of information was not provided by official sources. Available Italian Higher Health Institute data only included swab-tested subjects who tested positive for Covid-19. Firstly, we analyzed deaths and mortality rates in March and April 2020. Subsequently, we estimated the number of deaths from causes attributable to Covid-19 by comparing the number of deaths observed with the number of deaths recorded from 2015 to 2019. From this comparison, and on the basis of data provided by the ISS as to the number of Covid-19 deaths for each province and by age group at a national level, we were able to obtain an estimate of deaths attributable to Covid-19. The results show that in some provinces mortality impact was much higher than suggested in official reports, which accounted only for swab-tested subjects who had tested positive for Covid-19. A comprehensive mapping of research estimates confirms that the Bergamo province experienced the highest mortality rates in March. The Cremona province, on the other hand, had the highest death toll when both March and April were taken into account. With regard to age groups, Covid-19 mortality was seen to be highest among the oldest age groups for each province. Our study also outlines a breakdown of Lombardy into 3 main areas, classified according to different mortality levels and Covid-19 outbreak severity. Estimates were visualized via reflexive mapping, with a view to better understanding the uneven impact of Covid-19 on regional territories. These results confirm that in Lombardy, and notably in some of its provinces, the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak was significantly more severe than in other Italian regions.