2.09 Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche

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Working Papers of Department of Economics

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Artificial effect

Real-effort tasks, in which participants perform cognitively costly activities whose outcomes depend on actual performance, are widely used in experimental economics. Their validity, however, rests on the assumption that a human performs them. We study whether this assumption still holds in the era of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Large Language Models (LLMs). Using 8 canonical real-effort tasks and 23 LLMs from three major providers, we show that most tasks can now be solved accurately an...

Measuring salience in macroeconomic time series

This paper proposes a statistical framework to detect salience and its effects in time series data. We focus on two fundamental dimensions of salience surprise and prominence and translate them into well-defined stochastic features. Surprise arises from localized and unexpected deviations from regular behavior, while prominence is associated with persistence and long-lasting patterns generated by strong temporal dependence. We show that these dimensions affect the spectral representation of a...

Identification of a Single Independent Shock in Structural VARs, with an Application to Economic Uncertainty

We establish the identification of a single shock in a structural vector autoregressive model under the assumption that this shock is independent of the remaining shocks in the system, without requiring mutual independence among the latter—in contrast to the standard assumptions in the independent component analysis literature. The shock of interest may be either non-Gaussian or Gaussian; in the latter case, identification requires that the other shocks be jointly non-Gaussian. We formally pr...

Turning bias into leverage: the case for gender quotas

This paper explores how voter prejudice against women in politics can evolve over time through learning. Building on a Bayesian updating framework, we model voters as holding biased priors about female candidates’ competence and updating their beliefs based on the performance of elected women. The model predicts that gender quotas can accelerate this learning process by increasing the visibility of competent female politicians, and that the effect is stronger, i.e., learning is faster, in mor...

Spatial Spillovers Across Housing Market Cycles

We develop a theory of housing price spillovers based on price references, whereby learning about unobservable location attributes gives rise to spatial contagion in house prices. Our model predicts that expected price changes drive the strength of housing price spillovers across market cycles. While the theory predicts a selfreinforcing upward price spiral during the boom, spatial spillovers do not amplify downward movements in prices during the downturn. It also justifies the use of Spatial...

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