2.09 Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche

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Working Papers of Department of Economics

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Issue salience and women’s electoral performance: Theory and evidence from Google trends

In this paper we study, theoretically and empirically, how the belief that the gender of politicians affects their competence on a range of issues may influence electoral out comes depending on the salience of these issues. We propose a model of issue-specific gender bias in elections which can describe both the presence of a real comparative ad vantage (‘kernel-of-truth’ case, or stereotype) and the case of pure prejudice. We show that the bias influences electoral results but it can be par...

Judgment can spur long-memory

We arrive at this conclusion by using a new family of models — the Long Memory Judgmental Protocol (LMJP) — where robust filtering and fractionally integrated autoregressions are combined in an environment characterized by several players — namely, Forecast Producer, Forecast User and Reality. Our simulated and empirical evidence reveals that (i) knowledge of the LM parameter matters for the p-values of tests for spurious long memory; (ii) secondly that the role of LM in belief formation is a...

Pricing effects of code sharing in Africa

We investigate whether cooperation in the form of code-sharing agreements results in lower fares in the African context. While there is extensive research on cooperative agreement in the airline industry, little is known on the effect of airline cooperation in developing contexts. We analyze the direct effect of code-sharing agreements on the fares of connecting flights that were previously offered as interline flights and switch to code-share as well as the indirect effect of having airline...

Hard times for girls in STEM. The heterogeneous effects of distance learning on student achievement during the Covid pandemic

In this paper, we study the impact of distance learning on student achievement in higher education by exploiting the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and the consequent shift from in-person to online teaching during the second semester of the 2019/2020 academic year in Italy. We estimate a diff-in diff model using administrative data for different cohorts of students from a large university located in Bergamo in Northern Italy. Our results show that online teaching is associated with a lower...

Can we estimate macroforecasters’ mis-behavior?

We answer positively to this question by using Maximum Lq-Likelihood (or Deformed Likelihood) estimator. This is based on a parameter which measures the aggregate quote of judgment in the forecasting (game-based) system formed by three players—Forecaster, Policy Maker and Reality. For the first time in econometric literature, we apply this estimator to a dynamic system and derive a robust version of the Kalman Filter—the Deformed Kalman Filter (DKF). The evidence from U.S. data suggests that ...

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