2.09 Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche

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The judgmental strategy of professional forecasters [nuova versione]

We introduce a new definition of forecasting coherence based on the Likelihood Principle and a “Scoring Structure” environment where a Forecast User interacts with a Forecast Producer and Reality to detect strategic interaction among economic agents’ forecasting bias. This mathematical object is necessary to identify and parametrize coherence in a feasible econometric model and give it a structural interpretation. Structural coherence is evaluated through a formal test that satisfies theoret...

Women’s Empowerment through Financial Literacy in a Developed Country

Fractional Brownian Motion to Generate Multistage Scenario Trees

Unexpected Fiscal Policies

In this paper, we introduce a method to quantify the deviation of local policymaking from expected norms based on local characteristics. We begin by computing the cosine similarity of municipal public budgets between pairs of municipalities to generate a measure of similarity in policymaking. This measure strongly correlates with differences in local characteristics, such as geographical distance, size and demographic composition, and the political traits of local officials. Next, we use a fi...

Property Rights on Unused Assets and Investment Incentives: Evidence from Brazil

It is usually stated that property rights security on assets positively affects investment incentives since it guarantees the ability to get the future benefits from investment. Yet, the empirical evidence on this relationship is ambiguous. From a theoretical point of view, this is not surprising since property rights security on asset may even entail a negative effect on investment incentives as long as property right are endogenous to investment (Besley, 1995) or investors are characterized...

Scopri
Tipologia
  • Working Papers of Department of Economics31
  • 1.8.04 Working paper monografico in Serie/Collana4
Autore
  • ZANETTI CHINI, Emilio7
  • MANZONI, Elena6
  • BELLO, Piera5
  • MARTINI, Gianmaria4
  • ORIGO, Federica Maria4
  • CRISTINI, Annalisa3
  • PICCOLO, Salvatore3
  • BISCEGLIA, Michele2
  • GALLETTA, Sergio2
  • GUALINI, Andrea2
Data di pubblicazione
  • 20252
  • 20245
  • 20236
  • 20229
  • 20219
Editore
  • Università degli studi di Bergamo31
Serie
  • WORKING PAPERS OF DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS16
Keyword
  • Bias3
  • Likelihood Principle3
  • Mis-specification3
  • Nonlinearity3
  • Scoring Structures3
  • Deformed Likelihood2
  • Dynamic Systems2
  • female politicians2
  • Filtering2
  • gender2
Lingua
  • eng31
Accesso al fulltext
  • open31
Settore disciplinare
  • Settore SECS-P/02 - Politica Economica6
  • Settore SECS-P/03 - Scienza delle Finanze6
  • Settore SECS-P/05 - Econometria5
  • Settore SECS-P/01 - Economia Politica4
  • Settore SECS-P/06 - Economia Applicata3
  • Settore SECS-S/01 - Statistica1
Settore disciplinare (2024)
  • Settore ECON-02/A - Politica economica2
  • Settore ECON-05/A - Econometria1
  • Settore STAT-04/A - Metodi matematici dell'economia e delle scienze attuariali e finanziarie1
Appartenenza
  • Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche31
  • Dipartimento di Ingegneria Gestionale, dell'Informazione e della Produzione1