This paper estimates the relationship between the strength of economic shocks and temporal recovery in the world air transport industry. Our results show that world recovery of passenger demand to pre-COVID-19 levels is estimated to take 2.4 years (recovery by late-2022), with the most optimistic estimate being 2 years (recovery by mid-2022), and the most pessimistic estimate 6 years (recovery in 2026). Large regional differences are detected, Asia Pacific has the shortest estimated average recovery time 2.2 years, followed by North America 2.5 years and Europe 2.7 years. For air freight the results show a shorter average world recovery time of 2.2 years compared to passenger demand. At the regional level, Europe and Asia Pacific are comparable with average recovery times of 2.2 years while North America is predicted to recover faster in 1.5 years. The results show that the strength of economic shocks of various origins impacts the linear growth of passenger and freight traffic and the temporal recovery of the industry in a predictable transitory way. Hence, the impact of the COVID-19 recession will represent a temporary, although long-lasting, correction to previous growth levels.

(2021). Forecasting temporal world recovery in air transport markets in the presence of large economic shocks: The case of COVID-19 [journal article - articolo]. In JOURNAL OF AIR TRANSPORT MANAGEMENT. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10446/201860

Forecasting temporal world recovery in air transport markets in the presence of large economic shocks: The case of COVID-19

Cattaneo, Mattia;Redondi, Renato
2021

Abstract

This paper estimates the relationship between the strength of economic shocks and temporal recovery in the world air transport industry. Our results show that world recovery of passenger demand to pre-COVID-19 levels is estimated to take 2.4 years (recovery by late-2022), with the most optimistic estimate being 2 years (recovery by mid-2022), and the most pessimistic estimate 6 years (recovery in 2026). Large regional differences are detected, Asia Pacific has the shortest estimated average recovery time 2.2 years, followed by North America 2.5 years and Europe 2.7 years. For air freight the results show a shorter average world recovery time of 2.2 years compared to passenger demand. At the regional level, Europe and Asia Pacific are comparable with average recovery times of 2.2 years while North America is predicted to recover faster in 1.5 years. The results show that the strength of economic shocks of various origins impacts the linear growth of passenger and freight traffic and the temporal recovery of the industry in a predictable transitory way. Hence, the impact of the COVID-19 recession will represent a temporary, although long-lasting, correction to previous growth levels.
articolo
Gudmundsson, S. V.; Cattaneo, Mattia; Redondi, Renato
(2021). Forecasting temporal world recovery in air transport markets in the presence of large economic shocks: The case of COVID-19 [journal article - articolo]. In JOURNAL OF AIR TRANSPORT MANAGEMENT. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10446/201860
File allegato/i alla scheda:
File Dimensione del file Formato  
1-s2.0-S0969699720305871-main.pdf

Solo gestori di archivio

Versione: publisher's version - versione editoriale
Licenza: Licenza default Aisberg
Dimensione del file 3.49 MB
Formato Adobe PDF
3.49 MB Adobe PDF   Visualizza/Apri
Pubblicazioni consigliate

Caricamento pubblicazioni consigliate

Aisberg ©2008 Servizi bibliotecari, Università degli studi di Bergamo | Terms of use/Condizioni di utilizzo

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/10446/201860
Citazioni
  • Scopus 62
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 46
social impact