In this article, we propose an intersection-union test for multivariate forecast accuracy based on the combination of a sequence of univariate tests. The testing framework evaluates a global null hypothesis of equal predictive ability using any number of univariate forecast accuracy tests under arbitrary dependence structures, without specifying the underlying multivariate distribution. An extensive Monte Carlo simulation exercise shows that our proposed test has very good size and power properties under several relevant scenarios, and performs well in both low- and high-dimensional settings. We illustrate the empirical validity of our testing procedure using a large dataset of 84 daily exchange rates running from January 1, 2011 to April 1, 2021. We show that our proposed test addresses inconclusive results that often arise in practice.

(2022). Combining p-values for Multivariate Predictive Ability Testing [articolo]. In JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10446/226329

Combining p-values for Multivariate Predictive Ability Testing

Urga, Giovanni
2022-05-16

Abstract

In this article, we propose an intersection-union test for multivariate forecast accuracy based on the combination of a sequence of univariate tests. The testing framework evaluates a global null hypothesis of equal predictive ability using any number of univariate forecast accuracy tests under arbitrary dependence structures, without specifying the underlying multivariate distribution. An extensive Monte Carlo simulation exercise shows that our proposed test has very good size and power properties under several relevant scenarios, and performs well in both low- and high-dimensional settings. We illustrate the empirical validity of our testing procedure using a large dataset of 84 daily exchange rates running from January 1, 2011 to April 1, 2021. We show that our proposed test addresses inconclusive results that often arise in practice.
articolo
Spreng, Lars; Urga, Giovanni
(2022). Combining p-values for Multivariate Predictive Ability Testing [articolo]. In JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10446/226329
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/10446/226329
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