Bayesian subjectivism and psychosocial attitude toward COVID-19 vaccines [version 1; peer review: awaiting peer review]

Background: People resistant to vaccination against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have been counted in almost all countries worldwide. This anti-scientific subjectivity attitude could be explained by assuming as background the individual probability theory originally elaborated by the statistical school of de Finetti. Methods: This research method is based on a sample of 613 subjects from European countries who completed a questionnaire on attitudes towards COVID-19 vaccinations. On a six-value scale, a questionnaire investigated knowledge, assessments, degree of confidence, level of fear, anguish, and anger. Some items proposed an imaginary bet on the probability of not getting sick to deepen the possible presence of subjectivist assumptions about pandemics. Results: 50.4% were against vaccines and 52.5% against the so-called "Green Pass". Results of t-tests and correlations and stepwise regressions indicate that the sample’s reasons for opposing vaccination are related to an ego centred vision of the values that assign minor, if any, confidence to authority. Conclusions: This result supports the conclusion that No Vax decisions are more based on subjectivist probabilistic assumptions, thus in line with the significant social trend called "individualism".