Logit models for analysing and forecasting the performance of industrial enterprises in the Treviso area

This study analyses logit models from both a theoretical and applied point of view. The objective is to formulate a model for forecasting the performance of firms in terms of trends in turnover, investments, exports, employment and flexibility, and to identify the principal correlations with selected dependent variables, such as the level of computerization, the extent of collaboration with competitors and the characteristics of the product. The data refers to a survey conducted on a sample of 89 firms from the Treviso province in the north east of Italy. From the application of the logit models it emerges that the most important variables contributing to the economic success of the firms are technological flexibility, collaboration with competitors and investments in certain areas such as research and development, marketing and fixed technology. The employment trend is closely linked to characteristics of the individual firm’s product. Finally our findings show that the factors which contribute most significantly to technological flexibility (a key factor for the growth of the firm) are flexibility to demand, the level of computerization and staff training.