Prospective life cycle assessment to support eco-design of solid oxide fuel cells

Solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) could have great application potential and technological development. However, there are no studies that have quantitatively and rigorously estimated the environmental impacts in the future scenario. This study fills this gap through an innovative approach consisting of patent-based technological forecasting and prospective life cycle assessment (LCA). The analysis of the 58 selected patents reveals that future SOFCs could have (on average) +53% specific power which could lead to a 56% mass reduction compared to current SOFC. The prospective LCA shows an average global warming potential (GWP) reduction of 50%. The future tubular layout is more sustainable than planar one by about 15%. GWP decreases with increasing specific power and in cells with smaller sizes and thicknesses. Finally, the ductile future SOFCs, dedicated to mobile applications and dynamic loads, have a GWP greater than future stationary SOFCs, but still equal to half of the current SOFCs. All these results therefore confirm the potential of the patented SOFC developments on environmental sustainability, arguing in favour of their industrial development and a more massive application in the future.