This paper focusses on Secular Stagnation in the United States. It answers to two research questions. First: is Secular Stagnation a fact? Second: conditional to the previous reply, how does the literature meet the qualitative and quantitative evidence? I focus on historical annual data related to the USA from 1870 onwards. The contribution to the debate is manifold. Firstly, I provide a careful systematization of the concept and explain why this definition is crucial for the topic analysis. Secondly, I talk about Secular Stagnation in terms of labor and multifactor productivity growth: their decline since the 1970s is not comparable to any previous shortfall. Thirdly, the definition allows to evaluate whether present-day debates on the phenomenon are supported by data, but it also lets to disentangle the most relevant channels through which Secular Stagnation emerges. Therefore, I carry out a comparative validation exercise on the different lines of thought. Finally, as long as Secula...
(2024). Does the Secular Stagnation hypothesis match the data? Evidence from the USA [journal article - articolo]. In JOURNAL OF POST KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10446/294785
Does the Secular Stagnation hypothesis match the data? Evidence from the USA
Borsato, Andrea
2024-01-01
Abstract
This paper focusses on Secular Stagnation in the United States. It answers to two research questions. First: is Secular Stagnation a fact? Second: conditional to the previous reply, how does the literature meet the qualitative and quantitative evidence? I focus on historical annual data related to the USA from 1870 onwards. The contribution to the debate is manifold. Firstly, I provide a careful systematization of the concept and explain why this definition is crucial for the topic analysis. Secondly, I talk about Secular Stagnation in terms of labor and multifactor productivity growth: their decline since the 1970s is not comparable to any previous shortfall. Thirdly, the definition allows to evaluate whether present-day debates on the phenomenon are supported by data, but it also lets to disentangle the most relevant channels through which Secular Stagnation emerges. Therefore, I carry out a comparative validation exercise on the different lines of thought. Finally, as long as Secula...File | Dimensione del file | Formato | |
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