IT report on definition of decarbonization pathways and suitable design strategies. Deliverable 7.23

This report presents the national assessment of decarbonisation pathways, suitable design strategies and Whole Life Carbon (WLC) reduction targets developed for the Italian building context within the INDICATE LIFE project. The activity was led by UNIBG and developed with contributions from the Italian Consortium partners. Building upon the national baseline assessment and hotspot analysis developed in the previous national deliverables, the analysis identifies, structures and assesses a set of decarbonisation actions aimed at reducing WLC across the main life-cycle stages of buildings. An integrated methodological framework was developed, combining the Avoid-Shift-Improve (ASI) approach with the LCM structure adopted in the LCA assessment. The conceptualisation and development of a dedicated WLC measures matrix represent a key methodological contribution of the deliverable, translating this combined structure into a hierarchical structure composed of pathways, strategy packages, WLC strategies and WLC measures. The resulting matrix links broad decarbonisation objectives to specific actions that can be analysed within the scope of the INDICATE LIFE project. Building on this methodological structure, the assessment combines the review of European policy developments, scientific literature and national industrial practices with the analysis of selected WLC measures. Measures were classified according to their relevance, data availability, technical feasibility and compatibility with the available datasets. This methodological framework also defines the criteria for selecting the measures to be assessed and, where quantitative assessment is possible, the representative case studies considered suitable for remodelling. Where possible, measures were assessed quantitatively through the remodelling of representative case studies selected from the Italian INDICATE LIFE dataset. Other measures were discussed qualitatively, in relation to their applicability, methodological limitations and potential contribution to WLC reduction. The results show that the reduction potential is unevenly distributed across life-cycle stages and building typologies. Modules A1-A3 emerge as a key area for WLC reduction, confirming the central role of material and construction product production. Measures addressing the decarbonisation of production processes, the use of materials with higher recycled content and carbon capture technologies show relevant effects in this stage. Module B6 plays a different role depending on the building typology: office buildings show higher sensitivity to operational energy decarbonisation measures, while residential typologies remain largely dominated by Embodied Carbon. Measures acting on transport and end-of-life stages show lower absolute reductions, but remain relevant when considered as part of integrated decarbonisation scenarios. The aggregation of results according to the ASI framework indicates that the Improve pathway achieves the highest quantified reduction among the measures modelled. This result should not be interpreted as an intrinsic superiority of Improve over Avoid or Shift, but rather as a reflection of the greater methodological maturity and data availability for measures based on improvements in materials, production processes, transport systems and energy sources. The Avoid pathway also provides a relevant contribution, particularly through measures related to durability, maintenance and circular material use. The Shift pathway was not quantitatively assessed in this study due to methodological limitations associated with the direct substitution of conventional materials with bio-based alternatives in the available case studies. The analysis of combinations between WLC measures shows that the overall reduction potential cannot be calculated as the simple sum of individual measure benefits. Interactions between measures may generate synergies, overlaps or potential double-counting effects. For this reason, a compatibility matrix was developed to identify which combinations can be applied, which require caution and which are methodologically not applicable. The combined application of selected measures shows an overall reduction potential of approximately 27% for SFH, 25% for MFH and 31% for office buildings. The target values proposed in this report should be understood as indicative reduction values relative to the baseline, mainly expressed as percentage reductions. They are not intended as regulatory thresholds or directly applicable limit values. Rather, they provide an initial evidence-based reference for describing the WLC reduction potential achievable through selected decarbonisation strategies in the Italian building context. Overall, the methodological framework provides an integrated basis for linking national baseline hotspots, decarbonisation pathways and strategies, design measures, case-study remodelling and measurable WLC reduction targets. The findings support the identification of the life-cycle stages and intervention categories with the highest reduction potential and can inform future benchmarking activities, progressive reduction trajectories, and the development of policy, procurement or voluntary certification tools aimed at reducing the Whole Life Carbon of buildings in Italy.